New CNN polls show competitive US Senate races in four states

New polling by CNN across four key United States Senate races has found competitive contests in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas, offering Democrats a potential opportunity to challenge Republican control of the Senate ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday, 3 November 2026. However, the findings do not guarantee that Democrats will secure a majority, as several races remain close and some voters have yet to make their final decisions.

In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed received 49 per cent support among likely voters, compared with 42 per cent for Republican Mike Rogers. The poll suggests El-Sayed has gained ground since earlier surveys, with Democratic support becoming more consolidated following the state’s August primary. The contest remains important to both parties as they seek to strengthen their position in the Senate.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico recorded 49 per cent support, while Republican Ken Paxton received 43 per cent. The figures are notable because Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades. Nevertheless, the poll represents voters’ intentions at the time of the survey, rather than a final election result, and the outcome remains uncertain.

The races in Maine and Kansas were also competitive. In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson registered 49 per cent support against Republican Senator Susan Collins, who received 45 per cent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton had 49 per cent, compared with 45 per cent for Republican Senator Roger Marshall. These results indicate that both contests could attract considerable attention as the election approaches.

CNN’s polling was conducted among likely voters between 20 and 27 October in Michigan and Texas, and between 20 and 26 October in Maine and Kansas. The reported margins of sampling error were approximately 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points, depending on the state. This means the differences between candidates should be interpreted cautiously, and the figures should not be treated as exact predictions of the final vote.

The findings come amid a closely watched national contest over control of the Senate, where the balance of power will influence the legislative agenda and the ability of the president’s party to advance its priorities. Although the polls show Democrats competing in states where Republicans have traditionally performed strongly, the eventual result will depend on turnout, undecided voters and developments during the final days of campaigning.

FACT-CHECK STATUS

• Verified: CNN’s latest polling reported the figures for Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas among likely voters.
• Context: The polls were conducted before election day and include margins of sampling error.
• Important qualification: Polling results do not establish who will win the elections or which party will control the Senate.

Source: <Link url="https://keyt.com/politics/cnn-us-politics/2026/10/29/democrats-in-striking-distance-new-cnn-polls-in-four-states-highlight-partys-path-to-senate-majority/" title="CNN’s polling report, republished by KEYT"/>.