The warning comes from the UN Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report, released on 14 October ahead of the next United Nations climate conference, COP31, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November. The report says governments must urgently strengthen their climate commitments and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit how far global temperatures rise beyond the agreed threshold.
The 1.5-degree target refers to the long-term increase in global average temperatures compared with pre-industrial levels. Scientists warn that exceeding this threshold increases the risks of more intense heatwaves, droughts, flooding, rising sea levels and damage to ecosystems. Although temporary overshoot is increasingly expected, limiting the extent and duration of that overshoot could reduce some of the most severe consequences.
According to UNEP’s 2026 report, even the most favourable scenario now projects warming of approximately 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the middle of the century. If countries fully implement their current climate pledges, global temperatures could still rise by around 2.6 degrees by 2100, while current policies alone could lead to approximately 2.8 degrees of warming. The projections underline the gap between governments’ promises and the emissions reductions needed to meet international climate goals.
The report calls for rapid and substantial cuts in emissions, particularly those produced by burning coal, oil and natural gas. It says global emissions must fall significantly over the coming years, while countries accelerate the transition to cleaner energy, improve energy efficiency and strengthen policies to reduce pollution. UNEP also points to the continued expansion of solar and wind power as evidence that lower-emission alternatives are increasingly available.
The consequences of climate change are already being felt in many parts of the world. More severe heat, changing rainfall patterns and extreme weather events threaten agriculture, water supplies, public health and infrastructure. Developing countries with limited resources for disaster preparedness and adaptation are particularly vulnerable, even though their historical contributions to global emissions are often smaller than those of industrialised nations.
The forthcoming COP31 conference in TĂĽrkiye is expected to provide governments with an opportunity to discuss stronger climate action, financial support for vulnerable countries and practical measures to reduce emissions. Negotiators will face pressure to turn existing commitments into policies that produce measurable results, while addressing disagreements over responsibility, financing and the pace of the transition away from fossil fuels.
Despite the increasingly difficult outlook, the UN report stresses that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided can reduce future risks and damage. The world’s climate goals have become harder to achieve, but faster emissions reductions could limit the peak temperature rise and potentially help bring global warming back towards 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The challenge now is whether governments can move quickly enough to translate scientific warnings into concrete action.
